I was recently contacted by a member of this lineage who plans to upgrade their sample (now deceased) to a Big Y test. If they are able to provide the test then we will know a little bit more and have more reliable estimates for when the common ancestors of each line lived on the YFull tree.
I took an in-depth look at the samples on both the YFull and FTDNA trees and compared the STRs of men in public projects to produce the following research tree.
I'm holding off on adding the estimates of when the most recent common ancestor of each branch lived until the next YFull update. Here is a link to this branch on the YFull tree - J-FT103684
Note that none of the Dutch samples have done a NGS test but their position on the tree was confirmed by a SNP test at YSEQ. One of them is positive for FT105434, one of the SNPs currently defining the branch J-Z38157.
I tried to indicate a very distant common ancestor (predating surnames) with the high placement of the branching points joining the Germany/Austria, Netherlands, and Germany branches (as you read left to right).
I have predicted a common ancestor for the Germany/Austria and Netherlands lineages who are below J-Z38157 on the basis of a single mutation in DYS464a from 13 to 12. This means the first number of the DYS464 palindrome changed from 13 to 12 repeats. This was the only shared mutation I could find within the 67 STRs available for comparison. So this is just a prediction that would need to be confirmed by SNP testing.
Regarding the red note on the image, I don't know what scientific sample FTDNA uses to define the branch with the German on the right, J-FTA60432. They don't show this on their tree. I can only assume for now that it is the sample at the equivalent position on the YFull tree. If this German origin sample does the YFull analysis then we may get confirmation on this by inspecting the YFull tree.
There is a very deep diversity of J-FT103684 in and around Germany. However, the oldest ancient samples found in related lineages are from Serbia and Croatia. So I think that before assuming an origin in or around what is now Germany, we would really want to find ancient samples from that area.
If you just consider the country-level geography of the sample with ancestral surname Pummer, it is easy to lump Austria together with Germany and not consider this sample a geographic outlier from the others.
However, the exact location where they trace their male line descent is Kukmirn, Austria in the southern part of the Burgenland province, close to the border with Slovenia and Hungary. So this sample, being closest to where the related ancient samples have been found, could be a remnant, hinting that the origin of this lineage was nearby - nearby relative to Germany. This region was known as Noricum to the Romans.
The fact that there are no Albanians in this lineage or related J-PH1602 could indicate an original homeland in a different region from where the Albanian lineages of J-L283 originated.
Noricum and Pannonia were formally incorporated into the Roman Empire around the same time, 16 BC and 9 BC (though Augustus had conquered part of Pannonia including Segestica in 35 BC).
If the actual ancient origin of this lineage was in Pannonia or nearby, its current diversity in and near Germany could be explained by the heavy conscription of men in Pannonia following the War of the Batos, also known as the Great Illyrian Revolt, AD 6-9.
They were conscripted to keep them from causing further trouble and because the Romans needed additional auxiliary troops for their massive punitive expeditions against Arminius and his allies, in the wake of their betrayal by Arminius who ambushed and annihilated three legions in Teutoburg Forest shortly after the pacification of the Illyrians.
Another significant military engagement that happened several years later was a revolt of the Musulamii, a confederation of Berber tribes inhabiting Getulia, led by Tacfarinas. This took almost ten years to finally put down. So Roman-mediated migration of auxiliaries to fight Tacfarinas in Algeria and Tunisia is one possible vector for our J-Z38240* Algerian. The town where this man traces his descent is, if I recall correctly, Béjaïa (Bugia), Algeria, which also has many later connections to Europe. Incidentally this is where the mathematician Fibonacci grew up, his dad being a merchant and customs official from the Republic of Pisa.
If the true origin was Pannonia, Noricum, Dalmatia or elsewhere nearby, why don't we find more modern samples from these areas?
When the Celtic Scordisci invaded and conquered the Autariatae, who according to Strabo were "the once greatest and most powerful Illyrian people", this may have resulted in some male line extinctions or displacement.
Additionally, a number of historic events after the Roman conquest could have resulted in male lineages from Pannonia, Noricum, and Dalmatia becoming extinct.
Our Albanians survived the most, with some lines being displaced more than others, likely due to where their ancestors had been living. The location where their ancestors had been living is not yet known for certain.
Many different Migration Period tribes conquered Pannonia, Noricum, and Dalmatia. The Slavs in particular overran much of these regions. Avars and Hungarians came later.
The First Mongol Invasion and subsequent violence committed by fleeing Cumans would have wiped out many male lines in the Pannonian Plain.
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To enable me to write more interesting content about our ancestors' origins, consider donating to the J2b-L283 Research Fund so I can help a guy from the Vratsa Mountains of Bulgaria pay for a WGS400 test at YSEQ.