I was testing out the new Haplotype Matching feature in STR Match Finder and came across a J2b-L283 sample that was divergent enough to break my algorithm, due to having five mutations among the most stable STRs.
However, the sample appears to be fully formed J2b-L283>..>Z600>Z2509 due to having the defining mutation DYS437 = 15 -> 16. In that case, he is no more than 5500 years distantly related from his next closest relatives descending from J2b-Z2509.
While the above screenshot looks dramatic, apart from his divergent DYS455, the other individual mutations are not extremely improbable events, in and of themselves, ranging from 10 – 28% each. His divergent DYS455 tanks his probabilistic score for any haplotype defined by DYS455 = 11 because the mutation rate of DYS455 is less than once in a million years. I had to make an adjustment to STR Match Finder’s Haplotype Matching algorithm to handle lower scores in order for this sample to be correctly predicted as J2b-L283.
Note that the Poisson random variable mu I am using to compute the probability of a mutation occurring within 5500 years (in table above) are recently updated figures I recomputed from the YFull YTree’s computed TMRCAs and haplotypes.
Conclusion
We may be interested to upgrade this sample if we can make contact with him. While he does not appear to be basal J2b-L283 he may represent a rare line of J2b-Z2509 that is not closely related to any other known descendant line.
These posts are the opinion of Hunter Provyn, a haplogroup researcher in J-M241 and J-M102.
Your analysis of my Kit #B239156 is very interesting however, much of what you say makes little to no sense to me. My reason for not understanding your analysis is due to my unfamiliarity with the terms and processes used in your analysis.
Jean Bauler, b. 1689 d, 1757 of Luxembourg would be my 6th Great Grandfather. Two generations later, the surname Bauler became Baulesch (my 4th Great Grandfather). The reason for the surname change (spelling) is unknown but, may have been due to a relocation from Luxembourg to Germany. The family returned to Luxembourg, two generations later, and the surname spelling changed to Baulisch (my Great Grandfather).
Thank you for your research!